AVOID AVOID AVOID: Players to Avoid in FPL 24/25

In every period prior to Gameweek 1, as FPL managers awake from their slumber and begin the long and thought-provoking process of building their ultimate FPL draft, a number of players begin to emerge who just shouldn't be picked. In this article, I go through some of the highest owned players in FPL and why you should not be picking them for your team. Sure, go ahead and ignore me if you want, it'll mean I'll be further ahead than you at the start of the season!

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Go Away Goalkeepers!

Matt Turner (NFO) - £4.0m, 22.5%

At the beginning of last season, I understood why Turner was owned by so many managers. Following a transfer from ARS to NFO, who had a gaping hole in between the posts, it made sense to own a £8.0m combination of Turner and WHU's Areola (£4.5m).

Now, Turner is the 3rd choice GK behind Sels (£4.5m) and Miguel (£4.5m). It blows my mind to why his ownership is 22.5%, especially as he won't start at all. Perhaps, some managers don't understand how price changes work. Read this article that explains price changes. In short, once managers realise their £4.0m keeper is not starting, many will quickly transfer him out. The more transfers the greater the chance of a £0.1m price drop, which will happen quicker at the start of the season due to the higher amount of engaged managers. Save yourself the £0.1m loss and go for lower-owned £4.0m keepers who will be less volatile like Valdimarsson (2.8%), Bentley (1.4%) or Lis (0.3%).

Alisson Becker (LIV) - £5.5m, 11.0%

Don't get me wrong, Alisson is one of the best GKs in the world, playing in one of the best teams in the world. However, it is unwise to pick premium keepers. GKs have low ceilings with the usual maximum being 6/7. Alisson will not be value for money and you are better off going for a £4.5m or £5.0m keeper from sides who have clean sheet and saves potential, getting you more points.

Why am I not dissuading you from picking David Raya (£5.5m) at ARS? Well, difference between Alisson and Raya is that Raya plays for a better defence whilst Slot's LIV seem to be a bit more open than Klopp, potentially lowering their CS potential. We know what we are getting with Arteta: controlled football that seeks to kill the game, building from solidity at the back. From pre-season and Feyenoord, Slot's sides get forward but can leave themselves open at the back. Additionally, Raya offers similar points ceilings to the ARS defenders who are +£0.5m-1.0m, so he's actually the best and most assured way of getting into what should be the best defence in the league. Save your LIV spots for their attackers/defenders!

Dodgy Defenders!

Dan Burn (NEW) - £4.5m, 20.6%

Dan Burn was a popular pick when the game started, with many managers likely seeing his price tag as a steal, reminiscing about Eddie Howe's dream first season where NEW were getting CS for fun. Last season saw a drastic contrast in their defensive performances, going from 14 CS in 22/23 to 10 in 23/24. There xGC rose from 40.03 to 61.97! Although this was partly due to injuries and multiple competition involvements, I want to see how the NEW defence does first before selecting them.

Burn has been a Howe favourite at LB for the past couple of seasons but now he faces imminent threats to his starting spot. Both Hall (£4.5m) and Livramento (£4.5m) can play at LB, with the signing of Kelly (£4.5m) yet another option. Conversely, Burn has the flexibility to play at CB, especially in Botman's absence. Yet, with NEW keen to sign CRY's Guéhi, Burn could lose his starting spot completely. His positional flexibility was an attractive reason to select Burn, but I think owning him will burn a transfer for you to get him out of your side.

Ezri Konsa (AVL) - £4.5m, 16.2%

Having owned Konsa for large periods last season, I have a personal grudge against him. I brought Konsa into my team last year after seeing AVL's promising defensive stats and thought clean sheets were on the way. I was wrong, Konsa personally ended last season with 7 CS, I think I got one of them.

AVL's brand of football, whilst daring and a joy to watch, plays a high line which, when the runs are timed well can be easily exposed. Their xGC of 60.73 sits bang in the middle of clubs last season. Additionally, with Champions League now on the plate for AVL, expect the excellent Konsa to see his minutes managed, likely rotated with Cash (£4.5m) depending on the opposition at RB. Indeed, Konsa can move to CB but there is an array of options for Emery with the likes of Diego Carlos (£4.5m), Pau Torres (£4.5m) and Tyrone Mings (£4.5m) soon to be back from injury. There are much better options in a stacked £4.5m category, I suggest looking elsewhere.

Meddling Midfielders!

Phil Foden (MCI) - £9.5m, 26.7%

WHATTTTTT??? "Jack, how can you not suggest the second-highest scoring midfielder last season, only after Cold Palmer (£10.5m)??!!" Let me explain!

Firstly, Foden's summer exertions mean he will be late to returning back to the MCI starting lineup, already being confirmed by Pep who's stated that he will most certainly miss GW1. So, if you've been told that a player will not be starting GW1, do not pick them!

I'm not saying Foden is a bad option, but in a highly stacked and competitive midfield this year in FPL, I would suggest starting with a different midfielder in his price bracket. This allows you an easy transfer to bring Foden in for their kind run from GW2 onwards. He will score lots of points this season and I expect him to get near the 200 points mark again, but now is not the right time to own him. He should drop to £9.4m come the deadline of GW2, so you can pick him up at a cheaper price as well!

Martin Ødegaard (ARS) - £8.5m, 17.2%

A player I didn't own at all last season despite several purple patches, I encourage you not to own Ødegaard. Although playing in an attacking ARS system, the Norwegian will most likely be the assister of the assister.

In pre-season he's been operating in his usual No.8 role, playing as a double pivot linking defence and attack. I commend his 8G and 11A last season, but often his goal involvements came from the edge of the box. Either a long-scoring effort on goal with low xG or a pass which would slip into the box.

Further to my argument, let's compare his heat map to teammate Bukayo Saka (£10.0m), who scored 40 more points than Ødegaard last season:

Immediately we can see that Ødegaard stays much more outside of the box, allowing other forward runners to get into the box such as Saka, Martinelli (£7.0m) or Trossard (£7.0m). Thus, whilst Ødegaard will pick up assists at a steady rate more than goals, I think better value lies in ARS's wingers or even Kai Havertz (£8.0m), should he play up front, who will score you more points across the season.

F*** Off Forwards!

João Pedro (BHA) - £5.5m, 17.0%

A favourite in pre-season for the 22/23 season, João Pedro quickly disappointed managers after GW4 as he was heavily rotated by Roberto de Zerbi due to their involvement in Europe. Now, under new manager Fabian Hürzeler, João Pedro hype has begun again, especially as his FPL price surprisingly did not change.

Whilst I think João Pedro could have a much better season this year with no European football and less competition up front with an injured Ferguson (£5.5m), an aging Welbeck (£5.5m), an uncertain Undav (£5.5m) and a youthful O'Mahony (£4.5m), the Brazilian is yet to get any pre-season minutes under his belt. He's been managing an injury and will not be rushed back into action.

Furthermore, Hürzeler is new to the Premier League. Whilst, we know he will be attacking football which plays to the strengths of BRI, it may be wise to give them time to adjust to his tactics before jumping on João Pedro. He could be a steal and perhaps worth a thought on an early Wildcard, but just hold off him for now.

Ivan Toney (BRE) - £7.5, 11.5%

The talisman of BRE who is seeking a move away, Ivan Toney has been nowhere near my team. Indeed, his 2022/23 Premier League season was a fruitful one, ending the season on 20G and 4A scoring 182 points. Last season is hard to assess due to his suspension, but when we take penalties away from Toney, he only scored 14 goals. Combining that with BRE's poor summer recruitment, I do not feel confident owning any of their players, I'd rather wait and see before committing.

Additionally, his transfer status does not fill me with confidence. By GW4 we will know if Toney will stay at BRE, but my gut tells me that the club will cash in on him before that. He may be transferred out of the Premier League or remain in the league, but the uncertainty of his next club is not ideal if owning him. In FPL, certainties are what we look for in minutes, knowledge of systems, positional certainty and familiarity. Yes, Toney is familiar with BRE, but the Englishman could soon be exiting, putting his position in our squads in doubt.