Be Different with Differentials | >5% Owned Gems: FPL 24/25
Jul 29, 2024
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At the start of every season it's very natural that a template begins to form of highly owned players. As of now, Alexander Isak (£8.5m) finds himself as the most owned player with 55.2%, closely followed by last year's highest scoring forward Ollie Watkins (£9.0m) at 54.9%. In this article, I look at the other end of the spectrum with some low-owned gems under 5% ownership that can give you a competitive advantage and send you up the ranks. I will be choosing 2 options for each position to make you rethink your teams, only being allowed to choose maximum 1 player from each team.
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Goalkeepers:
Dean Henderson (CRY) - £4.5m, 4.5%
Henderson has not had an easy career path since his sensational season with Sheffield United on loan in the 19/20 season. During that season he claimed 160 points, 13 clean sheets and a whopping 97 points. Following that season he failed to force his way into the Manchester United starting spot despite the departure of David De Gea. Spending last season at Crystal Palace where he managed to secure a starting spot following Sam Johnstone's (£4.5m) unfortunate injury, he made the goalkeeper spot his own.
Following a solid finish to Palace's brief tenure under Oliver Glasner, Henderson looks set to retain the number 1 shirt for Glasner's first full season with Palace, an exciting prospect. Following Glasner's first official game in charge in GW26 in a 3-0 win against Burnley, Palace's defensive numbers look positive. They sit 4th for xGC with 15.29 between GW26-38, only sitting behind Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool - not bad company. They also sit 4th for the minutes per xGC with 83.1.
The signs are certainly encouraging. Additionally, with Henderson being protected by a solid defence of Muñoz (£5.0m), Guéhi (£4.5m), Andersen (£4.5m) and Mitchell (£5.0m), clean sheets look likely. Combined with Henderson's excellent save percentage per 90 of 66.3%, he could be a shrewd goalkeeper to own for the start of the season.
Carlos Miguel (NFO) - £4.5m, 1.5%
Those who watched my first FPL draft video on YouTube (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6mUdj_9OFk&t=404s) will be aware of my current selection of Forest's new keeper. Standing at 6ft8 and keeping 14 clean sheets in 25 games for Corinthians last season, Miguel is one of Brazil's exciting young talents. The move to Nottingham is a huge step in his career.
Forest have been struggling to find a long-term consistent goalkeeper since their return to the Premier League in the 22/23 season. Short-term loans of Keylor Navas and Dean Henderson were temporary strong options to their goalkeeper issues. Last season saw Matt Turner (£4.0m) and Matz Sels (£4.5m) struggle to provide solidity and assurance in goal. Odysseas Vlachodimos (£4.5m) looked good when he started but he was not favoured under Nuno's tenure, now moving to Newcastle.
Carlos Miguel seems set to be the number 1 for Forest this season. Since Nuno's arrival in GW18 last season, Forest have been improving their defensive numbers. Between GW18-38, they sit 4th for xGC with 27.90 and massively underperformed their numbers conceding 37 goals. With the right goalkeeper to make the crucial saves, Forest could be an exciting option for our defences. Indeed, Miguel needs time to adapt to the Premier League but his potential is undeniable. They also have a strong fixture run to start the season, only facing 2 of last year's top 7 in the first 10 games.
Defenders:
Lewis Dunk (BHA) - £4.5m, 4.3%
Lewis Dunk looks set to lead the line for Brighton for the 24/25 season. The skipper experienced a mixed campaign last season with Brighton struggling to adapt to European football under De Zerbi. Now, they begin life under former St Pauli manager Fabian Hürzeler who led his former team to the Bundlesiga 2 title last season.
Hürzeler employs a possession-based style of football which will greatly favour the England centre-back. In the last 365 days, Dunk ranks in the 92 percentile for pass completion in the top 5 leagues with 91.9% per 90. He also is in the 82 percentile for progressive passes with 4.72 per 90. This will serve Dunk well in the BPS metric.
Moreover, Dunk has been a consistent threat from set pieces for The Seagulls. Last season he scored 3 goals, averaging 1.03 shots per 90. He will most certainly continue to be a force in the box this season as well. If Brighton can turnaround their poor defensive performances this season they could be set for a strong campaign, especially without European football.
Rayan Aït-Nouri (WOL) - £4.5m, 4.0%
Aït-Nouri is an exciting pick for your FPL teams, although you may want to bring him in at a later date. In Wolves' first 5 games, they face 4 of last season's top 7 sides, seemingly unlikely they will register shutouts in those games.
However, Aït-Nouri's kind price and potential to play out of position is what is so exciting. Towards the latter end of last season when Wolves were struggling with injuries, the Algerian found himself playing as a LW, ending the season with 2 goals and 3 assists.
Aït-Nouri got very high in this LW role, producing 2.51 shot creating actions per 90 last season and 0.93 shots per 90. Defensively, don't expect clean sheets from Wolves but their numbers are very strong. Even if Aït-Nouri doesn't play as a LW with the return of Pedro Neto (£6.5m), expect him to still get forward and rack up the goals and assists.
Midfielders:
Leon Bailey (AVL) - £6.5m, 4.5%
The Jamaican had a much improved season last time out for the Villains. In 22 starts last season, Bailey ended the season with 10 goals and 11 assists. With the departure of Moussa Diaby, Bailey looks set to cement a starting spot in an exciting and potent Villa side.
Bailey's numbers and positions he takes up are very exciting, ideal for FPL managers. His heat map from last season (courtesy of FFScout) demonstrate his licence given to get forward and wreak havoc:
Bailey average 4 penalty area touches per 90 last season along with 40.1 minutes per 90 goal attempts, highlighting his threat in front of goal. On the eye test, the Jamaican would consistently drive at defences and get himself into great goal scoring positions.
There was lots of hype at the start of last season with Bailey when he was £5.0m, and the same is happening to Morgan Rogers (£5.0m). I currently own Rogers as my 8th attacker but can see a similar thing happening with him this season like Bailey of last season. Rogers will be eased into the starting XI whereas I can see Bailey exploding this season. At £6.5m, Bailey could be the answer to your money troubles in attack.
Dominik Szoboszlai (LIV) - £6.5m, 2.5%
Szoboszlai relatively underwhelmed last season for Liverpool following his big money move from RB Leipzig. The Hungarian suffered an injury hit season, starting just 25/38 games, returning 7 times compared to 14 goal involvements the season before.
However, under new manager Arne Slot, Szoboszlai could be set for an excellent season. The Hungarian scored the winner in Liverpool's 1-0 win over Real Betis, operating as a right striker when in possession of the ball despite setting up on paper in a 4-3-3. Slot seeks to build up most of the play through the centre and get the wingers to make behind the line runs. These runs can open up space for late runners at the edge of the box/in the box, Szoboszlai could be the one finishing the goals off.
Szoboszlai's goal saw him pick up the ball in between midfield and defence and set Salah (£12.5m) off down the right. Salah kept the width and played in Szoboszlai in the box to finish off the goal. If he can hold down the number number 8 come number 10 role, the Hungarian could be a gem at £6.5m.
Forwards:
Richarlison (TOT) - £7.0m, 1.3%
This punt might not age well as there have been rumours that Richarlison might be heading off to the Saudi league this summer. However, if he does stay, overcomes his injury problems and Spurs don't sign a striker, Richarlison could be set for a fruitful season.
In an injury-hit campaign last season, Richarlison produced quite remarkable numbers. In 18 starts for The Lilywhites he scored on 11 occasions, adding 4 assists as well. Angeball seemed to suit Richarlison, playing him down the middle, popping up in multiple good positions during games.
Additionally, Spurs registered the 3rd best open play xG last season with 57.68. This aided Richarlison's attacking threat, producing a shot every 25.2 minutes per 90. Moreover, Spurs' play style of getting to the byline and cutting the ball back to the centre was evident, with Richarlison scoring 10/11 goals in the box.
This is a massive punt but I enjoyed owning Richy for a few GWs last season. If the circumstances fall in his favour, he could be a gem!
Yoanne Wissa (BRE) - £6.0m, 2.6%
A week ago, Wissa was marked as a trap due to the return of Ivan Toney (£7.5m) and the new signing of Toney's likely replacement Igor Thiago (£6.0m). The landscape looks to have changed now with the former pushing for a move away and Igor Thiago suffering a meniscus injury which may see him out for months. Step up Yoanne Wissa!
The Congolese produced his best Premier League season last year, ending with 12 goals and 4 assists for The Bees. He was the main man to go to in the absence of suspended Toney and the injured Mbeumo (£7.0m).
Wissa registered 3.7 touches in the penalty area per 90, as well as 37.6 attempts per 90. This was also all whilst Brentford suffered with injuries during a large portion of their season, hampering their overall performances. Now with nearly all their key men back, Brentford look set to bounce back following a disappointing campaign last time out.
If Toney does move on which seems likely, Wissa could be set to lead the line for The Bees. At £6.0m, he's a steal for a counter-attacking side who will seek to be clinical with their chances.