England are the Great Pretenders of the Semi-finalists

And then there were four. England, France, Netherlands and Spain. Aside from the hosts, who fell to La Roja in the quarter-finals courtesy of a heartbreaking injury time header, it would appear that on paper, the four teams in the Euro 2024 semi-finals are the four best teams in the tournament. It has not been upset-free - witness, for example, the comparatively early exits of Italy and Croatia - but by and large, there have been few surprises in Germany this time around.

And yet, based on the quality of England’s play so far, I am certainly surprised that they have made it this far. Although France have arguably fallen below expectations in terms of goals scored during this tournament, there has been little cause for concern throughout. Such is the depth and quality of their squad that even coming up against Spain in Tuesday’s semi-final clash, I expect them to somehow find a way to win.

By contrast, England stick out like a sore thumb when it comes to judging their chances against the other three. Prior to their first match, Gareth Southgate’s team were being talked up by many commentators as tournament favourites, given the star quality present in the squad. Now, I would be shocked if they even manage to score against the Netherlands.

Oranje have not had a perfect Euros. They underperformed in the group stage and scraped through by virtue of being one of the best-performing third-placed teams. Yet, since then they have clicked into gear, comfortably sweeping aside a spirited Romania side and earning a hard-fought victory against my favourite team to watch this tournament, Turkey.

The same cannot be said for Southgate’s men. Having been placed in comfortably the easiest group alongside teams ranked 21st, 32nd and 57th in the world at time of writing, England somehow crawled their way to 1st place thanks to all three of Denmark, Serbia and Slovenia failing to beat each other.

Let us put that into context. England possess in their starting XI the Premier League Player of the Season (Foden), the La Liga Player of the Season (Bellingham), and the European Golden Shoe winner (Kane, who is also the second-most prolific Premier League goalscorer of all time). Also present is the Premier League Young Player of the Season, who was unlucky not to win this season’s Golden Boot (Palmer), and the joint-most expensive English footballer of all time (Rice).

The squad is so overstuffed with talent that Southgate has had the luxury of being able to leave out Jack Grealish - the only other Englishman ever to command a £100 million transfer fee - and Raheem Sterling, who was bested only by Kane in terms of goals scored at the last Euros. By any reasonable estimation, England should have comfortably beaten all three of their group stage opponents. Yet, the Three Lions ground out a 1-0 win against Serbia before limping to two draws, one of which ended goalless.

Moreover, despite somehow reaching the semi-finals, England’s performances have not improved in the knockout stages. Southgate’s men conceded first in both games against Slovakia and Switzerland, spending a particularly large part of the former trailing. It is only thanks to a moment of Bellingham magic, deep into stoppage time, that they even progressed past the second round. The case can be made, therefore, that England do not deserve to be in the semis at all.

Of course, a win is a win and the Three Lions have triumphed when it mattered most. Yet, my eyes do not deceive me. England have been abject for almost the entire tournament, playing slow, ponderous and unadventurous football when they should be comfortably defeating their opponents; particularly Slovenia, who can arguably boast just a single world-class player in Jan Oblak.

What exactly is going wrong? Well, for starters, those who have been paying close attention will have noticed England’s tendency to sit very deep and defensively. As George Frith pointed out in these pages after the Denmark game, between taking the lead and conceding, almost every player on the pitch had an average position somewhere in their own third - even Harry Kane.

Such tactics would be acceptable if our defence was not so prone to errors. In the same match, needlessly giving away the ball resulted in Morten Hjulmand having an opportunity to equalise from long range. And in the quarter finals, the Swiss brilliantly exploited gaps in the England backline to enable Breel Embolo to tap them ahead.

When the ball spends so long in our own half, England can ill-afford to take such risks. But when Kyle Walker, John Stones and Marc Guéhi elect yet again not to go forward and instead pass the ball around between themselves and Jordan Pickford in the penalty area, their lack of rigidity is laid bare. England’s defensive frailties may have gone relatively unpunished against the likes of Slovenia and Serbia, but faced with the lethal prowess of Cody Gakpo (and even, at this rate, Wout Weghorst), they are in grave danger of a thrashing.

Defensive woes aside, criticism has been rightly levelled at Gareth Southgate for his unwillingness to change tactics until crunch time. England were slightly better in the quarters against Switzerland, having switched to a 3-4-2-1. However, only one change was made to the starters from the previous match, with Ezri Konsa replacing the suspended Guéhi. Even more baffling was the deployment of Bukayo Saka at left back near the end of the Slovakia match, with the likes of Joe Gomez sitting on the bench. And of course, much has been made of the decision to place Phil Foden out of his preferred position, resulting in the Premier League Player of the Season producing awkward and disjointed performances.

Crucially, Jude Bellingham’s reaction to his number going up on the fourth official’s board against Switzerland exemplifies Southgate’s unwillingness to adapt his plan to the flow of the game. So convinced was Bellingham that the official had made a mistake that he refused to exit the pitch until his number 10 was switched to Kobbie Mainoo’s 26. Bellingham knew he wasn’t going off, and his baffled expression sums up the fact that rather than making substitutions based on the state of play, Southgate prefers to stick to his pre-prepared plan for the game.

Southgate is a nice man and a good man-manager, and does not deserve the abuse directed at him by some fans. Plastic cups thrown in his direction during the Switzerland match are another indication of a line being crossed by supporters when their team falls short. They would do well to remember that we have now won more knockout games under his leadership than we had in the fifty years preceding his appointment.

However, the fans’ antics should not exempt him from criticism. With a squad containing the likes of Kane, Bellingham and Foden at their peak, as well as countless others, England do indeed have their best shot at challenging for a major tournament in half a century.

Of course, much of the blame lies with Southgate’s tactical errors. However, you can also chalk England’s shortcomings up to the fact that they are cracking, yet again, under pressure. This is not a new phenomenon. In almost every major tournament since 2000, England’s chances are hyped to the nth degree by overly optimistic fans. Then, aside from the 2014 World Cup, we are always given a generously easy group which, in several cases, we have struggled to exit.

South Africa 2010 is a good example of this. A squad featuring several members of the so-called Golden Generation should have blitzed a group containing the USA, Algeria and Slovenia. Yet, that iteration of the Three Lions were held to two stale draws before scraping a must-win 1-0 victory to go through in second place. Faced with a Germany team containing veteran Miroslav Klosë, prime Thomas Müller and a young Mesut Özil, we were deservedly routed in the last 16.

Watching Euro 2024, I am reminded of fourteen years ago. England have been flat and lifeless, relying on moments of individual brilliance to bail them out. I have sympathy for Kane and co., having fallen so agonisingly short at the last Euros, and it is understandable that they are succumbing to pressure. Nevertheless, I reiterate that this is a squad full of the best players in their respective leagues. The expectation placed upon them is justified when you consider their quality.

England have been lucky so far to be drawn against teams that they are capable of beating. I am not sure that they will be so lucky against the Netherlands. Although I hope that I am wrong and that we may have finally clicked into gear following the composed penalty shootout, I fear that Ronald Koeman’s side have the beating of us. England’s good fortune will run out eventually, and in my view it is likely to be against our Wednesday opponents.

Unless, of course, we score another overhead kick. Fingers crossed.