Germany vs Scotland - Euros 2024: Can Germany Break the Euros Curse?

Curse? What curse? The curse that befalls the host nations at the European Championships. Since its first competition in 1960, only 3 times has a host nation taken the trophy home. Do Germany have the ability to break the curse and rise high above the rest? Or will Scotland surprise the hosts?

What is the Euros Curse?

Since its creation in 1960, there has been 16 championships. Only 3 of these have been won by the host nation: Spain 1964, Italy 1968 and France 1984. This is a rather alarming statistic, particularly when considering the overall consensus that playing at home is usually a distinct advantage. Yet, it is remarkable how many host nations have not won when playing on home turf.

I was born in 2001, so notable finals such as Portugal's 1-0 loss to Greece in the 2004 final and France's 1-0 loss to Portugal in the 2016 final in a sensational disappearance act by match winner Eder. Most painful, England's eventual loss to Italy in 2020 on penalties. Although this match was held by Europe as a whole, the final took place at Wembley Stadium, essentially indicating England lost on their beloved home ground (<sigh> we all thought it was coming home...).

Do Germany have what it Takes to Break the Euros Curse?

Coming into this tournament, in my opinion, Germany are dark horses to win the competition despite having home advantage. It seems lots of fans are still comparing Germany with the teams of the last three major tournaments. In the 2018 and 2022 World Cups they were knocked out in the group stages and in Euros 2020 they only made it as far as the last 16. Yet, this German team is a revitalised one.

Firstly, Julian Nagelsmann is a young and exciting manager. Since his appointment in September 2023, Nagelsmann has devoted himself to developing and enhancing the German project. Following years of embarrassment since the golden era of Germany, injecting rich talented youth combined with the calm and collected nature of veterans Kroos, Gündogan and Neuer, Nagelsmann has delivered a balanced team that are capable of beating anyone. Their dynamic young talent presents itself in the form of reborn frontman Kai Havertz (20 Premier League goal involvements), hot property Florian Wirtz (22 Bundesliga goal involvements) and Jamal Musiala (16 Bundesliga goal involvements). Germany have the potential to destroy any opposition, particularly as the German team's chemistry is still fairly new - they are largely an unknown threat.

Can Scotland put a Spanner in the Works of Germany's Title Hopes?

Group A will be a highly competitive group with Germany clear favourites, Hungary and Scotland boasting strong qualification campaigns and Switzerland's still relatively stacked team. It's an intriguing set of match-ups. However, despite their strong qualification campaign, Scotland are not being talked about to make it out of the group.

James Lawrence Allcott highlighted Scotland's fresh face under Steve Clarke and the importance of McGinn and McTominay's direct parallel attacking runs into the box that could cause defences problems. The Injury blow to Lyndon Dykes will hurt the Tartan Army, so it will be interesting to see how they adapt in his absence. There is no doubt in Scotland's quality through Robertson, Tierney and Christie but it is whether they can reach the knockout stages for the first-time in their history that will be the all important question.

The Scots have much to prove and a match-up against the hosts will be great motivation to get something from the game. In particular, there is no doubting the Scottish fans will be out in full voice in Munich to push their side on.

My Final Verdict: Not so Straightforward for the Germans?

I don't think this game will be as easy to predict as many are suggesting. I could see the first half being a cagey affair. Scotland will give it a good go but Germany should have the firepower to extinguish the Scots from winning the game. Germany need this game to go well to get the home fans on their side, setting the precedent for the rest of the tournament.

Final score prediction: Germany 2-1 Scotland