GW7 FPL Team Preview: -8 for Spurs Attack? FPL 24/25

Now into his 13th FPL season, Jack H takes you through his team for GW7, prior to the dreaded international break where we won't see FPL for 2 weeks. Jack's reviews GW6's performance, transfers and captaincy in this bumper article including a major -8 in the works!

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GW6 Review

After a horrendous start to the GW, I was quite happy with my 55 (-4) score. Many players blanked and I didn't own TOT or Palmer (£10.7m) for their points but I never intended to own them this week anyway. A red arrow was always likely after Palmer's monster 25-pointer.

Salah (£12.7m) was quite quiet against WOL but his penalty and 3 BPS was much needed as Haaland blanked. Again, I've got a return from my captain, taking it to 6 GWs with success, something I struggled with last season. I'll discuss captaincy a little later on.

Mbeumo continues to be a gem (I tipped him for the armband as well!) - the best Cameroonian ever to grace the game haha.

My transfers Milenkovic (£4.5m) and Evanilson (£5.9m) nearly gave me the dream start. Apart from a penalty, NFO looked solid at the back with Milenkovic nearly returning immediately on investment with a CS, conceding just the 1 goal. Evanilson bagged his first goal for BOU in a 3-1 win over SOU, Semenyo also getting in on the act, much needed points in a tricky week. 4 players returning this week was not ideal, I'm expecting a major response in GW7 from Hairline FC!

Transfers

Transfers Out:

My patience has been tested with Eze (£6.8m). Prior to the campaign, CRY's numbers and Eze's talismanic presence for The Eagles put him as a perma-lock in my team. 6 GWs later and the Englishman has only 1G to show for his efforts.

Despite his 0.51 xGI per 90mins, Eze has been extremely poor in front of goal, rarely hitting the target. Indeed he should've been awarded a goal in GW1 but CRY's performances have not been filling me with confidence.

Thus, it was time to sell my beloved Eze before a home visit of LIV, selling him on Sunday and avoiding the £0.1m price drop.

My next transfers out were part of a combination. Mitoma £6.6m and DCL (£6.0m) both hadn't hit the expectations for me. BHA with their free-flowing attacking football looked a great shout on my GW4 WC. However, João Pedro's (£5.5m) injury has clearly had an effect on the balance of the team with Mitoma's attacking numbers dropping drastically. in 3 GWs, Mitoma only registered 1A, for winning a converted free-kick. But his numbers and positioning concern me.

DCL looked more promising for EVE as they embark on an easier run of fixtures. His xGI of 0.27 and 0.35 against LEI and CRY were promising yet he could not return. I was considering holding him this weekend against NEW but my main concern with EVE is their attacking numbers. EVE sit 17th for xG and although all the chances should go to DCL or McNeil (£5.6m), I'd rather have a FWD in a team who create chances for fun.

Transfers In:

I've opted to bring in double TOT attack ahead of their excellent fixture run. BHA played a dangerous high line against CHE which was severely punished and based on current form, TOT can expose it and reap the rewards.

Since returning from injury in GW4, Solanke (£7.6m) has averaged 1.07 xGI per game. Spurs have been lacking a FWD to convert the chances, and now they have the solution. With the likes of Kulusevski, Maddison and Johnson creating chances for fun, Solanke looks primed to score goals. I feel lucky that Solanke has only netted 2G in the last 2 GWs when he should've had more. Now felt like the perfect time to bring him in again.

His teammate Johnson (£6.4m) is now on a run of 5 games with a goal in all competitions. He's looking back to his best after a rough start to the season. Johnson has been picking up dangerous positions to score, often crashing goals in at the back post, just like he did against MUN. He's shooting on sight and at 2.3% ownership, a superb differential.

Both Solanke and Johnson look great options and their heatmaps also back up my selection of them:

Solanke picks up central positions in the box and Johnson also probes the box when attacking. Combining this with Spurs 1st for xG and the BHA style of play suiting TOT to get in behind, I expect immediate returns for the 2 Spurs boys.

My final transfer, Rogers (£5.2m), enables me to spread the funds. I stupidly got rid of the Villa man on WC4, and since then he's grabbed 1G & 2A in 3 GWs. He presents such good value and I can play him when I fancy with the fixtures.

I'm aware that the -8 I'm taking is a big hit, but I think the aggressive approach this week should pay dividends. I'm not expecting Mitoma or Eze to return, DCL possibly as NEW concede most of their chances down the middle. But, both TOT and AVL are strong, confident attacking sides and it makes sense to own some of their players.

GW7 Preview

The boys lineup as follows (1,603,670, £100.3m, £0.3m ITB):

Looking at my team, I'd be very disappointed if my 7 attackers don't return points. Solanke, Johnson, Salah and Haaland all play for teams who sit in the top 3 for xG. The BHA v TOT game looks set to be a cracker, likely to be played out in a basketball style, suiting Johnson and Solanke perfectly.

BOU have been posting good numbers as well, sitting 7th for xG and facing a woeful LEI side who are 20th for xGC. Semenyo is involved in everything BOU do. Also, Evanilson ended his BOU duck and can now relax up front, likely leading to more goals!

Mbeumo is 5th amongst MIDs for xGI (3.74) and is now operating as the BRE talisman. WOL have got defensive injuries at the back as well as conceding most of their chances down the middle. Mbeumo should get a return in this game.

I do think Rogers will return against an out-of-form MUN team, especially after their huge win against Bayern Munich in the UCL. However, I feel AVL may be a bit slower out of the blocks following their midweek exploits, with Rogers potentially being hooked off early if the game is wrapped up.

I'm not expecting Verbruggen to keep a CS and if I have a spare transfer in the near future I will look to offload the Dutchman. Van Hecke's injury is not ideal for BHA's defence as Webster looks out of his depth in Hurzeler's system.

Similarly, Milenkovic will likely not keep a CS against CHE, but I expect NFO to frustrate The Blues. I fancy their CS chances more over IPS and Greaves. Yes, on paper, Greaves has the better fixture but IPS sit 18th for xGC whilst NFO sit 3rd - that is a huge disparity when disregarding the opposition.

Both TAA and Robbo should keep a CS against a poor CRY side. I'd expect LIV to control proceedings at Selhurst Park, especially following their mixed showing against WOL last weekend. LIV are also 1st for xGC and have only conceded 2 goals!

Captaincy:

For me this week it has been between 2 players: Mo Salah and Erling Haaland. After both players had bad or fortunate performances last weekend in FPL, both scored in midweek in UCL, restoring our faith in them (as if it was ever lost!).

I've compiled a grid of key information to help in my decision (all data taken from FFScout):

So according to the numbers, Haaland is by far the greater attacking threat, with Salah being more creative. However, Haaland's numbers don't show the absence of KDB and Rodri which can harm his output. Although I'm expecting Foden and Doku to come back into the side as this greatly increased MCI's creativity midweek.

In terms of the opponents, I wanted to compare key defensive numbers. FUL are better defensively than CRY, conceding xG every 88.1mins whilst CRY concede at a rate of 62.9mins.

Moreover, FUL have only conceded 12 chances down the middle where Haaland operates, whereas CRY have conceded 17 chances from the left hand side, where Salah operates.

Thus, when it comes down to current oppositional form and defensive numbers, CRY seem like the team to target. The only caveat one could argue is that FUL are slightly worse away from home, yet have only lost once on their travels so far this season.

The captaincy dilemma will likely go down to the deadline but I think I will back Haaland. All the chances go through him whereas LIV tend to share the points. Following their poor performance against NEW, MCI will be looking to rectify things this weekend. So, for me, Haaland will likely get the armband.

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