1 sleep until Manchester United take on Fulham in the opening game of the Premier League season, Jack H (https://x.com/FPLChumbazo ) has been working hard and crunching the numbers on his final GW1 FPL team. Have a read of his final thoughts as he edges ever closer to finalising his 15-man squad, reacting to the final pre-season performances and major transfers.
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Ownership accurate as of 13/08/24
Goalkeepers:
David Raya (ARS) - £5.5m, 24.7%
First 5 GWs: WOL, avl, BRI, tot, mci
Last year's Golden Glove winner is now my pick in between the sticks. He's been a revelation since joining Arsenal with both his shot-stopping and his play from out the back. No ARS defence has been giving me a major headache since the game started. But, their numbers from last season speak for themselves. ARS topped the xGC with 28.42, keeping 16 CS.
The argument against Raya is his price. Many FPL content creators have been pushing that he's not good value and it is better to go for a £4.5m GK like Henderson or Flekken. The aforementioned are good options but, think about this. Raya offers a similar points ceiling to the assured Saliba (£6.0m) despite being £0.5m less. Moreover, with ARS' defence now having more options than last season in Calafiori (£6.0m) and the return of Timber (£5.5m), the Spaniard gives you a headache-free place in that resilient defence.
Also, Raya was only 2nd to EVE's Jordan Pickford (£5.0m) last season in terms of points, showing that he is worth the extra bit of spending. If you want a keeper who will likely get you 6/7 points nearly every week, look no further than Raya!
Hákon Valdimarsson (BRE) - £4.0m, 3.4%
First 5 GWs: CRY, liv, SOU, mci, tot
Valdimarsson keeps his spot as my 2nd choice budget keeper. He won't start at all and will be rooted to the bench. Should Flekken (£4.5m) get injured, his deputy will be stepping up!
Defenders:
Pedro Porro (TOT) - £5.5m, 31.4%
First 5 GWs: lei, EVE, new, ARS, BRE
Looking a threat in pre-season and last, it feels good to finally own Pedro Porro. Last season, I didn't own the Spaniard at all, missing out on his 3G + 8A. At £5.5m, he's a bargain and, in my eyes, better than Gvardiol (£6.0m) for attacking threat and security of starts. His heatmap last season showed how far forward the RB got:
On set pieces as well, Pedro Porro offers immense value. I must concede, after his starting fixtures against lei and EVE, Spurs face trickier matches against new and ARS. However, I still feel Spurs can get goals here.
Additionally, Porro's xGI of 8.98 tops the defensive charts last season. CS are my only concern with Spurs, but with our first-choice back 4 all fit and raring to go, hopefully CS will be a nice bonus to an already exciting FPL pick.
Daniel Muñoz (CRY) - £5.0m, 4.1%
First 5 GWs: bre, WHU, che, LEI, MUN
Returning back to Palace in their 1-1 pre-season draw against Nantes, Muñoz has come back into my team. The Colombian has been impressive since joining The Eagles, registering 4 A in 16 starts last season, which should've been much more. In addition to CRY's strong defensive numbers under Glasner, Muñoz has all the makings of an incredible FPL pick this season.
Operating as a RWB in Glasner's 3-4-2-1, Muñoz along with Mitchell (£5.0m) will be given the licence to bomb forward and deliver crosses into the box. In the pre-season game, many of his crosses were finding Ebere Eze (£7.0m) on the edge of the box, a trend that will continue this season.
Neco Williams (NFO) - £4.5m, 0.6%
First 5 GWs: BOU, sou, WOL, liv, bha
I've been switching between Williams and his full-back opposite Ola Aina (£4.5m), but I've decided to stick with the Welshman. I've touched on NFO's positive defensive numbers despite not replicating them in CS last season under Nuno, so I want to have a piece of that defence.
Following Montiel's exit, it appears Williams is favoured at RB. With a reputation for getting down the right and delivering dangerous crosses, I'm intrigued to see if Williams can get some attacking returns, especially with the potent attack NFO possess. Solid opening fixtures for NFO increases their chances of CS. If this punt doesn't work I can always WC in GW4/5!
ValentÃn Barco (BHA) - £4.0m, 18.3%
First 5 GWs: eve, MUN, ars, IPS, NFO
Barco maintains his spot in my team as a very enticing budget defender. Returning back to the starting XI in BHA's pre-season victory over Villareal, Barco looks set to get at least the first 4 GWs whilst Estupiñán is out injured. During pre-season, the Argentine has been on set-pieces and has been bombing forward down the left-hand side. I have a feeling that he might haul on our benches in GW1!
Ben Johnson (IPS) - £4.0m, 2.3%
First 5 GWs: LIV, mci, FUL, bha, sou
The former Hammer completes my defence. Whilst I'm not expecting Johnson and Ipswich to keep many CS this season, I've been impressed with the positions he's been taking up in pre-season. In the last pre-season game against Nice, Johnson took up advanced positions as RWB in a 3-4-3. He probably won't be considered for my starting XI until GW5 but I'd rather have the attacking upside of Johnson over Faes (£4.0m) or Harwood-Bellis (£4.0m).
Midfielders:
Bukayo Saka (ARS) - £10.0m, 27.5%
First 5 GWs: WOL, avl, BRI, tot, mci
With Mo Salah (£12.5m) no longer in my thinking, Saka enters my team as my premium pick in midfield. The winger returned to pre-season and looked good as he played 77 mins. He registered 3 shots (1 on target) and missed 1 BC, hitting the woodwork. He was getting into the box frequently, reminding us of his electric potential in the ARS setup.
I think many, including myself have been put off by ARS opening fixtures but, I think we need to see The Gunners as fixture-proof. In their first 5 GWs I envision 2/3 CS and at least 1 goal in every single match. Saka is the main man for ARS, on corners as well, so should get some points.
Heung-Min Son (£10.0m) at TOT is still in my consideration for the premium pick. However, with the arrival of Solanke (£7.5m), I'm not sure how Son will adjust as he begins to build a relationship with the new striker. However, with Saka I know what I'm getting.
Diogo Jota (LIV) - £7.5m, 8.3%
First 5 GWs: ips, BRE, mun, NFO, BOU
Diogo Jota has been in and out of my drafts since he came back to pre-season training. Following his 1G + 2A against Sevilla, the Portuguese has entered my squad and held down a spot. I have fond memories of owning Jota in FPL, a clinical finisher and always present in goal involvement, injuries have been the only thing that's held him back from reaching new heights.
He is a risky punt with both Nuñéz and Gakpo (£7.5m) waiting in the wings for a start for the striker position. Yet, Jota looks set to start GW1 with more mins under his belt than the aforementioned. I'm willing to go for him and if he does lose his starting place come GW2/3, I can easily jump to any of the extensive options in the £5.5m-£7.5m bracket in midfield.
I prefer Jota over Salah due to his positioning. Salah, whilst looking very sharp in pre-season, does appear to be playing very wide. He does get into the box and have chances, but I worry that this will be more infrequent than in previous seasons where Salah regularly cut in and got into the box, a concern when paying £12.5m. Jota, however, looks set to stay central.
Anthony Gordon (NEW) - £7.5m, 31.0%
First 5 GWs: SOU, bou, TOT, wol, ful
A goal in his return to NEW in pre-season was enough to restore Gordon back into my FPL side. He's been a near mainstay in all my drafts, but pre-season mins were worrying me. However, he looked sharp in Newcastle's 4-0 win over Girona. NEW are one of the best attacks in the league and I envision Gordon to have a superb season yet again.
Eberechi Eze (CRY) - £7.0m, 33.5%
First 5 GWs: bre, WHU, che, LEI, MUN
Eze was also back for pre-season and looks raring to go come GW1. Glasner has CRY ticking and with Olise's departure, Eze looks set to become The Eagles talisman. Penalties, corners and free-kicks will be all taken by the Englishman as well as playing off the striker, Eze appears to be a dream to own.
Ibrahim Sangaré (NFO) - £4.5m, 1.6%
First 5 GWs: BOU, sou, WOL, liv, bha
The Ivorian completes my midfield as my cheap bench fodder who will likely pick up 2/3 points each week. Winks (£4.5m) at LEI is also in my consideration, should I want to leave 2 NFO spots available in case the likes of Wood (£6.0m), Hudson-Odoi (£5.5m), Gibbs-White (£6.5m) or Elanga (£5.5m) pick up form.
Forwards:
Erling Haaland (MCI) - £15.0m, 45.8%
First 5 GWs: che, IPS, whu, BRE, ARS
Suprisingly the only MCI player in my team, it feels good to own Haaland again. I'd been unsure whether I could fit the Norwegian in my side but following his strong end to pre-season, I've managed to find a way to fit him in.
I will concede, he was relatively quiet against MUN in the 1-1 draw in the Community Shield, not registering a single shot. But Ten Hag has gotten better at managing MCI's attack in recent games, so it's nothing to worry about. However, Haaland has some cracking fixtures to start the season with IPS in GW2 primed for the captaincy.
Alexander Isak (NEW) - £8.5m, 56.5%
First 5 GWs: SOU, bou, TOT, wol, ful
He's never left my team, Isak looks set for an excellent season with The Magpies. He's accumulated lots of minutes during pre-season and, with the signing of Willy Osula (£5.0m) seemingly pushing Callum Wilson (£7.0m) further down the pecking order, should be safe for mins.
Additionally, for those who want Watkins (£9.0m) but are worried by his no-show in pre-season, Isak could be a nice placeholder whilst you contemplate moving for Watkins. If Isak does well, then you keep him!
Also, Isak will most likely get my captaincy (C) for his tasty fixture against SOU. At home, NEW are a different animal and will be looking to put on a show for their fans on the opening day of the season. Isak will be the focal point of that NEW attack as Gordon and Murphy (£5.5m) will be teeing up for goals - one can hope!
Dominic Solanke (TOT) - £7.5m, 22.9%
First 5 GWs: lei, EVE, new, ARS, BRE
Dom's big money move to Spurs has not only got me excited in real life, but also in FPL. As soon as I saw Fabrizio Romano's "Here We Go!", the former BOU man was straight into my side. Since Kane's departure TOT have been crying out for an out and out striker. Richarlison (£7.5m) did a good job last season despite injuries and off-the-field personal issues, but Solanke is precisely what we need.
His profile suits are style of play and with immense attacking support, I'm predicting Solanke will score 22+ goals this season. Set for his debut against an all over the place LEI side, I'm very tempted to drop a cheeky (C) on him!
Final Team:
I'm heading on my travels around Mexico so, this draft may change prior to the GW1 deadline on Friday 16th August 18:30.
Make sure to follow me on my Twitter account https://x.com/FPLChumbazo for all the updates to my team as well as general FPL musings!
I wish everyone a good start to the new FPL season and a green arrow. Remember, play your own game, don't obsess over the game and just enjoy yourself. FPL is meant to enhance watching the Premier League, not torment you. When the fun stops, take some time away from your phone! You can't control variance, simply predict who you think will score the most points!
