Ok, ok: Is it Really Coming Home? England's Chances at Euros 2024

With one more sleep until the Euros kicks off with Germany v Scotland, I deep dive into England's chances of bringing the European Championship home focusing on the squad selection, tactics, potent challengers and whether Southgate is the right man for the job.

The Squad Selection: Bold Choices and Omissions we may Regret?

What was most notable about Southgate's final 26-man squad was his change from consistency to a more performance related decision process. In the past we've seen Southgate stand by his favourites, most notably Maguire, Rashford and Henderson, despite none of them enjoying particularly good seasons. Refreshingly, Southgate opted to include young breakout stars who enjoyed solid 23/24 campaigns. This includes the likes of Eze, Gordon and Palmer who combined to contribute 69 goal involvements in the Premier League last season. In comparison, Marcus Rashford mustered only 9 goal involvements in an abysmal campaign for United.

Further inclusions in defence of Joe Gomez, Marc Guehi and Ezri Konsa were fully merited, all delivering outstanding performances, especially as all 3 were affected by injuries at various points. Yet, an alarming weakness can be seen from the distinct lack of out and out left-backs in the England fold.

The above table does consider the flexibility of certain defenders such as Gomez and Trippier who can do a solid job at left-back. Luke Shaw, when fit, is a superb left-back yet he is not fully match fit. Southgate has suggested that Shaw may be able to get some minutes in the 2nd or 3rd group game. This poses the question, would it not be sensible to bring in Tyrick Mitchell? A highly competent left-back who has been consistent for a developing Palace side. A right-footer at left-back immediately poses an issue of sticking to the touchline to provide width for England. This may inhibit England's potency in the final third, a potential regret for Southgate if we do not lift the trophy.

What did we Learn from England's International Friendlies?

Prior to the friendlies, ask any England fan and they would say "it's coming home". On paper England have one of the best teams in the tournament with quality throughout the side. Yet the international friendlies against Bosnia & Herzegovina and Iceland were not easy watching.

Against the former, we looked comfortable in possession but lacked any dangerous threat. It wasn't until Alexander-Arnold's mark on the game made a huge difference, picking pivotal passes to provide England with a key to the Bosnian defence. In my opinion, Trent's best position in this England side is at right-back. Here, he creates himself an angle to swing deadly crosses into the box and pick out pin point passes to initiate England's attacking play. Indeed, he could operate in a central midfield role but this does add to England's alarming exposure at the back.

Following the 3-0 result against Bosnia & Herzegovina, the Iceland fixture highlighted the evident weaknesses in England's system. For years now, England fans have clamoured for Southgate to take the handbrake off and allow England's stacked attack to strike fear into the opponent's defence. Of late, the manager has opted for a 4-2-3-1 with a rather high line. The Iceland game cemented the doubts of the system. As seen in the image below right before Iceland's winning goal, England's pressing system is not proficient. This left Mainoo and Walker out of position, exposing England to a 4 v 3. The passage of play ends with Thorsteinsson wrong-footing Stones to slot the ball past Ramsdale. Here, Stones should not be left in a 1v1 situation. Therefore, whilst most England fans will be in favour of a more attack minded approach, it is worth mentioning that the Three Lions may ship more goals than as desired.

Euros 2024: A Tournament of Unknown Entities and Dark Horses

Perhaps the most exciting element of this year's tournament is that the championship is a wide open race. Currently, most sides are either in a transitional period with unproven, unknown youth or clinging to an ageing team who may lack a cutting final edge in the latter stages of the competition.

Romantics of the sport may point to Toni Kroos, Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric to potentially end their international careers by leading their countries to glory. Others may see the raw and erratic talent of The Netherlands and Spain as too strong for the rest. The tournament is wide open without a doubt. On paper, the most balanced side is France who have a stunning combination of youth and experience across the pitch. It is no surprise they are hot favourites.

Additionally, the resurgence of so-called "lesser teams" offer intriguing challenges. Rangnick’s Austria come into the tournament in a rich vein of form. Although they are competing in a tricky group of France, Netherlands and Poland, I could see Austria reaching the Last 16. Moreover, Switzerland and Hungary will be fiercely competing to finish a likely 2nd in Group A. The latter are beginning to build consistency in international tournaments and Liverpool's Dominik Szoboszlai will be eager to champion the Hungarians.

Thus, the unknown potential of many teams combined with the solidity of established nations does make it harder for England to cruise through the tournament.

Gareth Southgate: The man for the job?

Following his comments hinting to leaving England should they not win the Euros, it appears Southgate will be leaving the Three Lions following the tournament's conclusion. His contract ends in December 2024, so his departure after the tournament seems a suitable time to leave should the team not succeed.

Should England reach the quarter-finals of the competition, Southgate would have managed 100 England games, a stupendous feat. Many England fans will accuse Southgate of not doing enough whilst manager since he has no trophies to show for his efforts. Yet, trophy or no trophy, Southgate has added more than wins to England. He's created a supportive and positive team environment, one that is world's apart from the previous toxic period under previous managers who failed to control big names and their working relationships. Southgate has found a comforting dressing room and his authentic personality has certainly resonated with his players. Euros or no Euros, I have a lot of respect for Southgate and how he has created a superb culture in the England camp which will aid in the Three Lions' next steps.

My Final Verdict: ¿Va a venir a casa?

England will surely make it out of the group, but I'm not expecting easy games despite how they appear. Forever the optimist, I am gunning for England to lift the trophy but I can't look past the strength of France, Spain and Portugal who come into the tournament in terrific form. As per my own personal prediction via the League Predictor app, England will fall to France in the semi-finals and not deliver revenge following the World Cup defeat.

Final prediction - England to reach the semi-finals